01Sizing
Position sizing in thin markets
In a thin pair your size decides your exit price. Sizing from pool depth instead of account balance, with the constant-product arithmetic worked through.
Read the entryRisk rules: the part of the method you control
You do not control whether a trade works. You control the size you chose, the exit you wrote, and the sentence that ends the position when the reason for it stops being true. That is the entire list, and it is why this section sits underneath everything else on the site.
On Solana the constraint is usually depth rather than conviction. In a thin pair your own order is part of the price, so a position that looks modest against your account can be large against the pool it has to leave through. These notes work that arithmetic out in the open.
- Controls
- Position size, exit design, invalidation, and whether you take the trade at all
- Constraint
- Pool depth on the exit side, not account balance
- Excludes
- Risk of ruin tables borrowed from other markets and presented as facts here
- Honesty
- Every rule in this section names the good trades it will cost you
3 entries in this section
The part of a method you actually control. Size chosen from depth rather than conviction, exits decided before entry, and an invalidation written in advance so a bad trade ends on schedule.
02Exits
Exits and scaling out
Four exit types, what each one costs, and how a scale-out ladder behaves when depth thins under it. Written before entry or it is not an exit plan.
Read the entry03Invalidation
Invalidation, not hope
An invalidation is a sentence written before entry that ends the trade without a new argument. Four kinds, how to write one, and how they fail on chain.
Read the entryRisk rules come first, then the setup
Sizing and invalidation are decided before a situation is even identified, which is why they read as constraints rather than tactics. The playbooks apply them; the situation notes describe the conditions they are applied in.
Situations
The recurring shapes a Solana market takes when liquidity arrives, moves or leaves: a first listing, a migration between venues, an activity spike, and the ordinary hours in between.
Playbooks
A playbook is a situation plus a rule you wrote before the situation appeared. Each one here states its trigger, its cost, the case where it fails and the condition that retires it.